THE RESEARCH EDITION
Technology & Industry
GE Vernova's $9 billion Trench acquisition raises a question that factory size cannot answer: how much value comes from owning qualified grid-component capacity rather than securing it by contract? A new production-and-delivery model shows why testing, customer approval and existing commitments can matter more than nameplate output.
Technology & Industrial
Converting a semiconductor factory creates value only when the new technology generates more economic benefit than the existing production it displaces, after accounting for capital costs, yields and time to market.
Infrastructure Economics
The Barking derailment raises a question that spare track mileage cannot answer: can a container actually complete its journey when the normal corridor is constrained? Using London Gateway as a case study, Rokin Research models how an inland terminal can make nominal rail capacity worthless, why backlogs persist after reopening, and when reserve transport capacity might justify its price. The freight volumes and monetary values are illustrative scenarios, not measured losses from the derailment.
Latest Research
Regulatory Economics
Can Biodiversity Prices Reveal Local Scarcity?
England’s statutory biodiversity credits can cost several times the quoted price of comparable private habitat units. But a large list-price gap does not establish a developer saving or a shortage. Comparing 18 habitat categories across northern and southern England reveals no consistent regional price premium. The deeper economic question is whether the right units are legally available when a project needs them, and whether habitat suppliers can finance their thirty-year commitments.
Capital & Market Structure
Can a Halloween Pop-Up Break Even in Eight Weeks?
Halloween demand is highly seasonal, and European markets differ sharply. Using a hypothetical Dutch pop-up, we calculate the sales required to cover eight weeks of costs and show how a final-week capacity bottleneck can turn enough potential customers into an operating loss.
Energy & Industrial Economics
Why Does Italy Pay More for Electricity Than Spain?
In the first half of 2026, comparable Italian households paid 6.33 euro cents more per kilowatt-hour than Spanish households. The surprising result is where the gap sits: 91% lies in the bill before taxes. For a defined business category, however, non-recoverable levies matter substantially more. We examine what this decomposition proves, why gas-sensitive wholesale markets offer a plausible explanation, and what the evidence cannot yet attribute to any single cause.
Infrastructure Economics
Durban Is Moving More Containers. Why Isn't the Backlog Falling?
Durban Gateway Terminal reported improving weekly container throughput even as industry data pointed to roughly 35,083 outstanding vessel-handling moves. Why can both be true? Rokin Research separates incoming work from the surplus capacity needed to clear the backlog, then models recovery times and the economics of accelerating service. The results are illustrative scenarios, not measured financial losses.
Infrastructure Economics
When Is Extra Harbour-Pilot Capacity Worth Paying For in Rotterdam?
Rotterdam's 29 October pilotage warnings reported a demand surge, not measured vessel delays. Rokin's illustrative 48-hour model asks when reserve pilotage capacity is worth paying for and tests it against rescheduling arrivals. The result is a useful distinction: added service can shrink a long recovery queue, while shifting scheduled arrivals can simply replace unexpected waiting with planned delay.
Infrastructure Economics
When Is a Spare Freight Path Worth Nothing?
The Barking derailment raises a question that spare track mileage cannot answer: can a container actually complete its journey when the normal corridor is constrained? Using London Gateway as a case study, Rokin Research models how an inland terminal can make nominal rail capacity worthless, why backlogs persist after reopening, and when reserve transport capacity might justify its price. The freight volumes and monetary values are illustrative scenarios, not measured losses from the derailment.
Technology & Industry

The Price of Control: Can GE Vernova Buy Time?
GE Vernova's $9 billion Trench acquisition raises a question that factory size cannot answer: how much value comes from owning qualified grid-component capacity rather than securing it by contract? A new production-and-delivery model shows why testing, customer approval and existing commitments can matter more than nameplate output.

UMC: When Is It Better to Sacrifice Existing Wafer Production Than Build Another Factory?
Converting a semiconductor factory creates value only when the new technology generates more economic benefit than the existing production it displaces, after accounting for capital costs, yields and time to market.
Capital & Market Structure

Can a Halloween Pop-Up Break Even in Eight Weeks?
Halloween demand is highly seasonal, and European markets differ sharply. Using a hypothetical Dutch pop-up, we calculate the sales required to cover eight weeks of costs and show how a final-week capacity bottleneck can turn enough potential customers into an operating loss.

How Many Batteries Can France Add Before Batteries Destroy Their Own Profits?
France's battery queue is growing alongside sharp differences between cheap and expensive electricity hours. But storage changes the prices it trades against. In a constructed French-market experiment, two-hour battery arbitrage falls by more than half after 4 GW of additional identical capacity. Whether that makes a new project uneconomic depends on construction cost, other revenues and the market's actual response. These are illustrative results, not a French investment forecast.
Infrastructure Economics

Why Does Italy Pay More for Electricity Than Spain?
In the first half of 2026, comparable Italian households paid 6.33 euro cents more per kilowatt-hour than Spanish households. The surprising result is where the gap sits: 91% lies in the bill before taxes. For a defined business category, however, non-recoverable levies matter substantially more. We examine what this decomposition proves, why gas-sensitive wholesale markets offer a plausible explanation, and what the evidence cannot yet attribute to any single cause.

Durban Is Moving More Containers. Why Isn't the Backlog Falling?
Durban Gateway Terminal reported improving weekly container throughput even as industry data pointed to roughly 35,083 outstanding vessel-handling moves. Why can both be true? Rokin Research separates incoming work from the surplus capacity needed to clear the backlog, then models recovery times and the economics of accelerating service. The results are illustrative scenarios, not measured financial losses.


